Photo Credit: Curtis Palmer / Wikimedia Commons
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The last lap pass. It is what fans dream for. For drivers, it is either a moment of triumph, or a moment of devastation. At Talladega, the last lap pass is what’s expected.
Talladega Superspeedway has a history of producing thrilling finishes. Seven of the last 10 Sprint Cup Series races at this track have been decided on the last lap. Three of those were photo finishes, and the October 2010 finish had to go to a video review before declaring Clint Bowyer the winner. The margin of victory for the 2011 Aaron’s 499 finish was .002 seconds, which is tied for the closest finish in NASCAR history.
Talladega Superspeedway is by far the most competitive track on the circuit. There has been an average of 62.2 lead changes in the last 10 races. If you throw out the tandem races of 2011, the last 10 pack races at Talladega still averaged 57.8 lead changes. Talladega’s restrictor plate counterpart Daytona has only averaged 27.7 lead changes in the last 10 pack races. Thirty more lead changes at Talladega. The track holds the record for most lead changes in one race—88 in 2010 and 2011. The 2010 Aaron’s 499 also had 29 different leaders, which is a NASCAR record. The track also holds the NASCAR record for the most lead changes at a track with two points races. Talladega had 175 lead changes in 2010.
But now the question becomes, when do you make your move? Last fall, the field organized themselves in a single-file line with 15 laps to go. The drivers stayed in line until the final lap when Austin Dillon was turned by Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Race leader Jamie McMurray went unchallenged in those final 15 laps, and the caution denied Dale Earnhardt Jr. any attempt at a last lap pass.
Last spring’s finish was chaotic on the other hand. The race had a late restart that forced a two lap sprint to the finish. Matt Kenseth was out in front with two laps to go, then Carl Edwards took the white flag, and finally, David Ragan muscled his way past Edwards for the win.
In the last 10 races at Talladega, the final pass for the lead was made with an average of 3.5 laps left in the race. But, when you sub out 2011 for 2008–remember, 2011 was tandem racing instead of the packs–the average bumps up to 5.5.
The drivers must also decide where on the track to make their move. Jimmie Johnson, and Kevin Harvick made their race-winning moves in the tri-oval as they were coming to the checkered flag. Ragan made his pass on the backstretch. Clint Bowyer made his winning pass in 2010 in turns one and two. You do not want to wait too long, but you do not want to make your move too early either.
We have already seen a last lap pass for the win three times this season. Wins mean more than ever before, as a win could provide a driver a postseason berth in NASCAR’s Chase. Something tells me to expect another thrilling finish at Talladega.
The Pace Car 